Tariffs cool down, silver prices jump initially and then pull back. Market awaits guidance from ECB and Fed interest rate meetings [SMM Weekly Silver Market Review]

Macro side, tariff risks cooled as major trading nations finalised agreements on Thursday, reversing market risk appetite. News of an impending US-EU deal boosted market sentiment, triggering a sell-off in safe-haven assets. Silver prices retreated from highs due to macro fluctuations and profit-taking by bulls, though capital enthusiasm remained strong. Subsequent US Fed rate decisions and interest rate cut expectations may halt the decline and trigger a rebound.

[Economic Data]

Bearish: Germany's July manufacturing PMI preliminary reading at 49.2 (prior: 49, forecast: 49.5); France's July manufacturing PMI preliminary reading at 48.4 (prior: 48.1, forecast: 48.5).

Bullish: US EIA crude oil inventories fell by 3.169 million barrels in the week ending July 18 (prior: -3.859 million, forecast: -1.565 million); China's June total electricity consumption rose 5.4% YoY (prior: 4.4%).

[Spot Market]

Silver: Prices broke key resistance levels early this week, hitting multi-year highs before weakening, with SGE silver T+D peaking at 9,498 yuan/kg. Spot transaction prices initially showed standard silver ingots in Shanghai at a 3-4 yuan/kg premium against T+D or a 7-8 yuan/kg discount against the SHFE silver 2508 contract. Large producers quoted a 3-4 yuan/kg premium against T+D. By week-end, the spot-futures price spread narrowed, with suppliers lowering premiums to parity against T+D or switching to a 25-30 yuan/kg discount against the SHFE silver 2510 contract. Domestic spot market saw cautious optimism among suppliers, while downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement. Overall spot transactions remained sluggish amid high volatility. In the silver nitrate market, some firms reported gradual order growth as terminal operations improved, with July output slightly higher than June. However, processing fee quotes remained trapped in "rat race" competition, with extreme low prices or extended payment terms still prevalent.

PV: Weekly average reference prices were 5,952-6,103 yuan/kg for solar cell rear-side silver paste, 8,962-9,189 yuan/kg for solar cell front-side finger, and 8,912-9,139 yuan/kg for solar cell front-side busbar.